French media: Russia's military "achievements" in 2024 will be 7 times that of 2023

Russia's forces expanded their military footprint in Ukraine by 4,000 square kilometers in 2024 – up sevenfold year-on-year.

The figures underscore the realities on the ground for Ukraine in the new year: Moscow continues to invest heavily into the nearly-three-year war in Ukraine, but it remains in doubt whether the United States will do the same after a new president, Donald Trump, takes office in January.

Most of Russia's advances were achieved in the autumn of 2024, with major gains of 610 and 725 square kilometers in October and November respectively. In fact, in both months the amount of land that was either completely or partially held by Russia reached its highest levels since its forces first invaded Ukraine in March 2022.

December slowed Russia's military progress, with the country claiming an additional 465 square kilometers – up nearly fourfold compared to 2023 but up only 50% compared to 2022 and in line with Russia's typical end-of-year gains in recent history.

Hours before midnights, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to end Russia's war of aggression "in the next three years" in his first-ever address to the world's Jews – and to Russia for those "who see themselves as Europeans in Russia."

Zelensky, whose speech came in a video posted on his website and social media platforms, also said that a deal with Russia's President Vladimir Putin to end the war "isn't even a goal."

"And you know how I know this? Because the war is happening on our blood," he said.

Ukrainian authorities say some two million Jews perished in Ukraine during the Holocaust. A large part of Ukrainian Jewry perished in the 1941-1944 German occupation of what was then the Ukrainian Soviet Republic.

Ukraine marks the 83rd anniversary of the first large-scale massacre of Jews by the Nazis in the country on Thursday. On Jan. 23, 1942, German killing squads shot up to 40,000 Jews living in Kryvyi Rih, a now-southern Ukrainian industrial city.

"We will fight. We will win," he said with Ukrainian and Hebrew subtitles accompanying his speech. "We will not forgive you for your sins, you won't hear our praise for killing millions of our relatives, friends, neighbors. You can wait for mercy if you leave the lands that belong to Ukraine, which your ancestors took from us. If your goal is to build a life on the blood of our mothers and grandparents, brothers and sisters, children – there can't be peace with you. It's a war and we will win, no matter what you do."

Ukraine lost about 100 square kilometers on its side of Russian lines in each of May and August.

While Russia is now closer to Kyiv and key cities in Ukraine's east than it was this time last year, some analysts say such measurements are misleading and fail to account for the scale of human and economic losses suffered by Moscow throughout the war. Others, however, say the advances are an indicator of how Russia has shifted its tactics and adapted to Ukraine's changing needs.

Ukraine's president, who was not included to give his New Year's address, said his country was "toughening to the bone" during 2024, but still "had the world by the hands."

"Today, as never before, they need us. The world wants peace, and only Ukraine, not Russia, can lead the world to true peace. I do not doubt that the president of the USA, who comes to office next year, wants and has enough political will to achieve peace and end the aggression of Putin. We can get it all. Now, in 2025, it should happen," Zelensky said.

The data comes from a database on military progress in Ukraine that is independently maintained by Agence France-Presse (AFP) and was cited by a number of international news outlets in the last days of 2024.

Russia claimed it captured nearly 600 square kilometres of ground, the equivalent of some 1.5 Londons, in October, while November's reported gains were enough to account for 300,000 football pitches.

While Ukraine lost significant amounts of territory in both months, most of it remains contested.

Some analysts said it was misleading to simply measure ground lost and gained in the war in Ukraine. While it may be easy to calculate square kilometers, the scale and speed of Russia's military losses, and the impact of fighting on cities, make it challenging to quantify the conflict's overall progress, said Olesya Lucas of Chatham House in the British media Daily Telegraph.

Others, though, have suggested the measurements are important because they show Russia's ability to respond and adapt to the realities on the ground.

Ukraine has not published figures on its territorial gains and losses, while Russian President Vladimir Putin and his propaganda machine have largely kept quiet about his forces' progress in the months since the Wagner Group paramilitary unit's leader was killed. Instead, Russian officials have released vague estimates on their military advances that often seem to be in line with AFP's calculations.

Russia's territorial gains come as Ukrainian military officials warn that Putin is set to launch a major offensive next year.

While Russia has been more effective on the ground in the past 12 months, it has largely remained stagnant – and lost ground – when it comes to its efforts in the air. Russia launched around 390 missiles against targets – mostly in major cities – in 2024 and lost around 4,300 drones, most of which were designed to deliver explosives, compared to around 620 and 4,100 respectively in the previous year.

While Russia launched 390 missiles, it did so largely in two separate bombardments, one targeting Mariupol and another in October that saw almost 300 launched over 24 hours. The Russian air raids left few dead in Ukraine but were designed to instill fear and test Western resolve to continue supplying the country with billions of dollars-worth of arms.

As for drones, the country was less effective in its October air strike and, in recent months, has largely focused its attention – and explosives – on the ground and closer to its frontlines in the country's east.