Russia Launches "New Year's Eve Air Raid" on Ukraine, Rarely Targets Area Around Ukrainian President's Office

Ukrainian authorities reported on January 1 that a Russian drone strike in the early hours of the New Year's Day killed two people and injured six others in the center of Kyiv. Ukrainian officials said that Russian drones targeted the Pecherskiy district in the center of the capital, close to the Ukrainian president's office and government buildings.

The attack came hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a New Year's address, vowing to do "everything possible" to end the war in the next 12 months.

Hours before Zelensky's address, Russian President Vladimir Putin also delivered his annual New Year's address and declared 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland" in Russia.

What Russia Wants Is Not a "New Minsk Agreement," but a "New Yalta Framework"

On December 19 Moscow time (2024), Russian President Vladimir Putin held a "direct line" and annual year-end press conference in Moscow. During the event, which lasted more than four and a half hours, Putin took questions from more than 60 journalists and members of the public, with the most attention-grabbing questions undoubtedly being those concerning the current situation and future trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Putin said that it was difficult to predict how much longer the war would continue, and that Russia was making progress towards the primary objective it had set at the beginning of the special military operation, but this progress was not as fast as the world and Russia had hoped. He also noted that Russia had a partner in Ukraine, someone with whom it could engage in dialogue.

Regarding the future of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, Putin said that Russia was ready to negotiate with any legitimate representative of Ukraine, including Zelensky. Russia did not have any preconditions for resuming the dialogue, but it must be based on the agreement reached during the previous negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. This position was the most prudent based on the current situation.

In response to a question from an American journalist about whether Russia was willing to compromise on the Ukraine issue, Putin said he was open to compromise. "Politics is the art of compromise," he said.

However, just days before and after Putin's marathon press conference, a series of sudden incidents occurred, adding headaches for Russia. The most significant external change was the rapid collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, with the entire world watching to see how Russia, which has been heavily involved in the Syrian conflict, would respond. Internally, Russia also suffered attacks on high-ranking military personnel and apartment buildings, carried out by the Ukrainian side.

Going further back, there was the escalation in November, when the United States and Europe allowed Ukraine to use weapons provided by the West to attack targets within Russia. Russia then responded by firing Iskander hypersonic medium-range missiles at targets within Ukraine.

Although this tit-for-tat attack caused considerable alarm and global condemnation, the statements from both Russia and the West seemed to leave room for maneuver.

Currently, the US is in the midst of a power transition, and it remains uncertain how long "Joe Biden's America" will last. It also remains to be seen what policies former US President Donald Trump will implement once he assumes office again in two months, given his bold claim that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. Russia, Ukraine, and Europe are all waiting and buying time, attempting to gain more leverage for themselves in the future. However, it is clear that the conditions for all parties to sit down at the negotiating table are not yet mature. There are fundamental contradictions between Russia and the US, Europe, and Ukraine that are difficult to resolve.