SpaceX's challenger is coming…

It must be admitted that American space company SpaceX has been too dominant in the commercial space launch industry. In 2024, SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy family of launch vehicles completed 134 space launches, more than half the global space launches (259). Finally, SpaceX may soon face competition in this field – the New Glenn heavy-lift rocket from its longtime rival, American aerospace company Blue Origin, is expected to launch soon, and its performance is better than the Falcon 9 across the board. If it becomes widely used before SpaceX's new Starship Super Heavy rocket becomes operational, it could shake SpaceX's dominant position in the US commercial space launch, and it might even pose a challenge to SpaceX's global leadership.

The New Glenn was recently successfully tested during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral, Florida, in late December. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has also issued a launch permit for the New Glenn rocket's maiden flight, and the FAA's published airspace notice indicates that the launch window will begin at 1 a.m. on January 6, Eastern Time, 2025.

The New Glenn is a towering 98 meters tall and consists of two rocket stages. The first stage booster can be reused up to 25 times and is equipped with seven Blue Engine-4 (BE-4) engines manufactured by Blue Origin. This powerful configuration provides an impressive initial thrust during liftoff. Atop the booster, the second stage houses the payload and the experiment payloads for this mission.

According to the US news outlet CNN, the New Glenn, a reusable launch vehicle, is expected to challenge SpaceX's current flagship rockets, the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, in commercial space launches. Its liftoff thrust is 1,750 tons, its low Earth orbit payload capacity is 45 tons, and its geosynchronous transfer orbit payload capacity is over 13 tons. Among currently operational launch vehicles, only NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) super-heavy rocket, designed for the US Artemis lunar landing program, and SpaceX's Falcon Heavy are more powerful for commercial launches, whereas the Falcon 9 – the most used SpaceX rocket – has a low Earth orbit payload capacity of 23 tons. Although the New Glenn has twice the payload capacity of the Falcon 9, its per-launch cost is expected to be comparable – reportedly $60-70 million – making it extremely competitive.

Compared to the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, the New Glenn has a unique advantage – its payload fairing is seven meters in diameter, with a payload volume that is twice the size of a standard five-meter commercial fairing. This means it can carry more diverse sizes of payloads or larger payloads of the same type.

The New Glenn was supposed to launch in 2020, but, like many other US rocket projects, it has been constantly delayed, meaning it now has many launch orders in the queue. Currently, Blue Origin is on par with SpaceX and the United Launch Alliance (ULA) – a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin – in winning lucrative US military launch contracts. For example, in June last year, the US Space Force announced that it had signed launch service contracts worth $5.6 billion with Blue Origin, the ULA, and SpaceX.

In addition, Blue Origin has also signed satellite launch contracts with NASA and several commercial companies. It has, in particular, secured a deal which will see the New Glenn conduct 27 launches for the future Kirkirk broadband internet satellite. This is very similar to the current Starlink broadband internet satellite constellation developed by SpaceX, and Blue Origin has a very strong intention to compete with SpaceX in this field.

The New Glenn, if it progresses smoothly, is expected to challenge SpaceX's current dominance in the commercial space launch sector. But if the project continues to be delayed and is not ready for use when SpaceX's Starship Super Heavy rocket becomes operational, then the New Glenn will no longer have any advantages. But there are analysts who believe that NASA still wants to promote Blue Origin, as it does not want SpaceX to have a monopoly on US future space launch business.

It is worth noting that in 2024, the world carried out 259 space launch missions. Among them, the 134 SpaceX launches were more than the total number of launch missions carried out by the rest of the world combined. The launch figures clearly demonstrate that the US is still overwhelmingly dominant in the space launch sector. Regardless of whether the New Glenn challenges SpaceX's dominant position, the fact remains that its future launches will serve to strengthen US leadership in space. It also reminds the rest of the world that they need to work much harder to compete in the space sector.